100 games a season: Gare Joyce's puck blog

About Me

Location: Toronto

I've written for ESPN The Magazine and espn.com the last five years. My work has made the "notable" list of the Best American Sports Writing seven times and won four Canadian National Magazine Awards. My most recent book is Future Greats and Heartbreaks: A Year Undercover in the Secret World of NHL Scouts. I've written three other sports books: When the Lights Went Out: How One Brawl Ended Hockey's Cold War and Changed the Game; Sidney Crosby: Taking the Game by Storm; and The Only Ticket Off the Island: Baseball in the Dominican Republic.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

100 Games Holiday Edition: Trading Deadline Advice

Okay, I'll keep it brief. Here's a few things you should keep in mind on deadline day.

This year's draft lacks star talent up top (no Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin). Fact is, the top pick in this year's draft (Kane, Esposito, Van Riemsdyk, whoever) would likely be no higher than fourth or fifth in last year's draft.
This year's draft is not deep, according to scouts in the field. What you get at the end of the first round is another year's second-round talent.
The difference is marginal between a second-round pick and a third-rounder. The chances of a player having an impact is about 15 percent.
There's a far greater difference between a top 20 pick and one between Nos. 21 and 40.
Next year's first-rounder is far more valuable than this year's. A far better draft on the high end (Stamkos, Del Zotto, Pietrangelo, etc) and scouts say it's like the 2003 for depth (didn't realize just how many have already made the show and arguably the best one goes in the second round).

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2003e.html