CSS's Final Rankings: Likely Two Americans in Top Three

If only NHL draftniks could fill out brackets like NCAA fans. Anyway, there should be a fairly dramatic shift in the final rankings submitted by the NHL Central Scouting Service in a little bit. Here's what the top of the mid-term rankings looked like:


1. ESPOSITO, ANGELO-QMJHL-QUEBEC-C
2. VAN RIEMSDYK, JAMES-USDP-USA U-18-LW
3. GAGNER, SAM-OHL-LONDON-C,W
4. KANE, PATRICK-OHL-LONDON-RW
5. TURRIS, KYLE-BCHL-BURNABY-C
6. ELLERBY, KEATON-WHL-KAMLOOPS-D
7. BLUM, JOHN-WHL-VANCOUVER-D
8. ALZNER, KARL-WHL-CALGARY-D
9. SUTTER, BRANDON-WHL-RED DEER-C,RW
10. CROSS, TOMMY-HIGH-CT-WESTMINSTER-D
11. COUTURE, LOGAN-OHL-OTTAWA-C
12. MCDONAGH, RYAN-HIGH-MN-CRETIN-DERHAM-D
13. SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN-USDP-USA U-18-D
14. SKOKAN, DAVID-QMJHL-RIMOUSKI-C
15. VORACEK, JAKUB-QMJHL-HALIFAX-RW
16. VEILLEUX, KEVEN-QMJHL-VICTORIAVILLE-C
17. ROSS, NICK-WHL-REGINA-D
18. PERRON, DAVID-QMJHL-LEWISTON-LW
19. DOYLE, ERIC-WHL-SWIFT CURRENT-D
20. O'BRIEN, JAMES-WCHA-U OF MINNESOTA-C
21. GILLIES, COLTON-WHL-SASKATOON-C
22. HAMILL, ZACH-WHL-EVERETT-C
23. PACIORETTY, MAX-USHL-SIOUX CITY-LW
24. HOEFFEL, MIKE-USDP-USA U-18-W
25. WHITE, PATRICK-USHL-TRI-CITY-C
26. HICKEY, THOMAS-WHL-SEATTLE-D
27. COHEN, COLBY-USHL-LINCOLN-D
28. ELLINGTON, TAYLOR-WHL-EVERETT-D
29. TANGUAY, MAXIME-QMJHL-RIMOUSKI-C
30. SPALING, NICK-OHL-KITCHENER-C

Okay, off the top, there is no way in the world that Esposito will be at No. 1. I can't speak for CSS's scouts--I haven't sounded them out--but those working for NHL clubs have been down on him with only occasional exceptions all season long. The consensus among them--and I've sounded them out all season--is that the final rankings will likely look like:

1. Kane
2. Van Riemsdyk
3. Voracek
with 4 and 5 and 6 going to Esposito, Gagner and Turris in any possible order.

Now, this isn't a pure reflection of talent--it's more like guessing the nominees for the Oscars. A lot of scouts for NHL teams wouldn't put Esposito in the top ten simply based on his play this season, but Central doesn't want to look like they were so off base in the mid-term, which they would if No. 1 fell to No. 6 or No. 8 or No. 10. It's a bit of political intrigue, a matter of impressions. Some movement down is okay, but a dramatic shift--which in Esposito's case might be deserved--calls undue attention to CSS's mid-term. If I had to guess (and I don't) I'd put him at four. A lot of scouts would put Voracek at No. 1 or No. 2 but same scenario--how would it look if No. 16 in the mid-term jumped to No. 1? Like CSS didn't get it right the first time. No. 3 is completely deserved for Voracek. (I caught Game 2 in Halifax the other day and spoke to him after practice, which I'll blog about down the line. The Q players I spoke to--outside of Halifax--say there's no contest between the dynamic Voracek and Esposito.)

Other notes:

I doubt that it will be reflected in CSS but I suspect on draft day that of the three Rimouski players, the Slovak Skokan at No. 12, Tanguay (Alex's brother) at No. 29 and Olivier Fortier at No. 45, Fortier might get the most love at the draft. I suspect that Fortier might be closer to 30 than 40 in the final CSS--he should be.

By my count I've seen 16 of the top 20 at some point or another and spoke to about half. Kane and Gagner already carry themselves like 10-year NHL veterans, while Voracek is just an ebullient kid and Esposito has the weight of the world on his shoulder.

Overvalued in CSS: Gillies (regarded by scouts as limited) Ross (couldn't find him the two views I had of him)
Undervalued: Voracek (as noted before but should be again) maybe Sutter (scouts say that he's the smartest player in the draft, even if he's the scrawniest, a doppelganger for his father, tho')
Wild cards: Akim Aliu-Sudbury-winger (won the fastest-honors at the Prospects game, suspended [but re-instated] by Sudbury late in the season, immense gifts, more to come on him in future) Turris (NCAA bound, playing against thin competition in BCHL, u-18s should be a better indicator of where his game is but some scouts would have him in the mix with the top 3)